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  • Cementing Europe’s Recovery
    Europe’s renewed sense of hope and confidence, however encouraging, is not sufficient – at least not yet – to produce appreciable welfare gains for current and future generations. A few things need to happen rather quickly – specifically, over the next several weeks and months – if the continent is to minimize the risk of slipping into another prolonged period of under-performance and additional asymmetrical downside financial risk.
  • Wallets Wide Shut
    Some economists, like Larry Summers, call it “secular stagnation”. Others refer to it as “Japanization”. But all agree that, after too many years of inadequate growth in advanced economies, substantial longer-term risks have emerged - not only for the well-being of these countries’ citizens, but also for the health and stability of the global economy.
  • The Uncertain Future of Central Bank Supremacy
    History is full of people and institutions that rose to positions of supremacy only to come crashing down. In most cases, hubris – a sense of invincibility fed by uncontested power – was their undoing. In other cases, however, both the rise and the fall stemmed more from the unwarranted expectations of those around them.
  • The Fed's Surprise and Yellen's Challenge
    The US Federal Reserve sparked a global – and now month-long – guessing game with its decision on September 18 not to “taper” its monthly purchases of long-term securities. Now that President Barack Obama has nominated Fed Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen to succeed Bernanke in January, there is even greater interest in what lies ahead for the world’s most important central bank.
  • America’s Labor Market by the Numbers
    Politicians and economists now join investors in a ritual that typically takes place on the first Friday of each month and has important consequences for global markets: anticipating, internalizing, and reacting to the monthly employment report released by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Over the last few years, the report has evolved in a significant way – not only providing an assessment of the economy’s past and current state, but, increasingly, containing insights into its future as well.


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